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␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ βHAPPROPRIATE SCIENCE FOR THE NEXT 50 YEARS

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α
term␈α"appropriate␈α
science"␈αleads␈α
me␈α
to␈αfear␈α
that␈αsomeone␈α
wants␈αto␈α
declare␈α
some␈αother
␈↓ ↓H␈↓science␈α∩inappropriate.␈α∩ All␈α∩knowledge␈α∩is␈α∩appropriate,␈α∪and␈α∩science␈α∩is␈α∩the␈α∩one␈α∩reliable␈α∪way␈α∩of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓obtaining␈α∩knowledge.␈α∪ That␈α∩there␈α∪is␈α∩inappropriate␈α∪science␈α∩suggests␈α∪that␈α∩there␈α∪is␈α∩appropriate
␈↓ ↓H␈↓ignorance.␈α⊃ Since␈α⊃the␈α⊃handout␈α⊃didn't␈α⊃mention␈α⊃"inappropriate␈α⊃science",␈α⊃my␈α⊃fears␈α⊃are␈α⊂somewhat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓mollified, and I won't pursue the matter further unless it comes up.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_I␈αshall␈αtake␈αthe␈αquestion␈αas␈αasking␈αwhat␈αcan␈αwe␈αreasonably␈αhope␈αto␈αdiscover␈αin␈αthe␈αnext␈α50
␈↓ ↓H␈↓years␈α
that␈α
will␈αbe␈α
intellectually␈α
the␈α
most␈αinteresting␈α
and␈α
which␈α
will␈αmost␈α
benefit␈α
human␈αwelfare.␈α
 It
␈↓ ↓H␈↓is␈α
easier␈α
to␈α
think␈α
of␈α
useful␈α
technology,␈α
because␈α
science␈α
tends␈α
to␈α
be␈α
unexpected,␈α
while␈α
there␈α
is␈α
plenty
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈α
insufficiently␈αexploited␈α
science␈α
on␈αwhich␈α
to␈α
build␈αmore␈α
technology.␈α
 Therefore,␈αI␈α
shall␈α
ask␈αfor
␈↓ ↓H␈↓some␈α∃appropriate␈α∃technology␈α∃(not␈α∃much␈α⊗of␈α∃which␈α∃will␈α∃be␈α∃"appropriate␈α∃technology"␈α⊗in␈α∃the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓fashionable sense), but first I will obediently hope for some scientific discoveries.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_1.␈α
I␈α
don't␈α
know␈α
any␈α
objective␈α
criteria␈α
for␈α
deciding␈α
that␈α
one␈α
scientific␈α
field␈α
is␈αmore␈α
interesting
␈↓ ↓H␈↓than␈α∀another,␈α∀so␈α∪favorites␈α∀must␈α∀involve␈α∀personal␈α∪taste.␈α∀ I␈α∀think␈α∪my␈α∀own␈α∀field␈α∀of␈α∪artificial
␈↓ ↓H␈↓intelligence␈αmay␈αbe␈αone␈αof␈αthe␈αmost␈αinteresting␈αduring␈αthe␈αnext␈αfifty␈αyears.␈α It␈αstudies␈αthe␈αgeneral
␈↓ ↓H␈↓relation␈αbetween␈αintellectual␈αgoals␈α
and␈αthe␈αmeans␈αfor␈αtheir␈α
achievement.␈α To␈αsolve␈αits␈αproblems␈α
we
␈↓ ↓H␈↓must␈α∂obtain␈α∂a␈α∂scientific␈α∂understanding␈α∂of␈α∂common␈α∂sense,␈α∂of␈α∂pattern␈α∂recognition␈α⊂and␈α∂judgment.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Reaching␈α
human-level␈α
intelligence␈α
will␈α
require␈α
at␈α
least␈α
one␈α
major␈α
conceptual␈α∞breakthrough,␈α
and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓we cannot say whether this will be achieved in the next fifty years.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_2.␈αOne␈αcan␈αalways␈α
hope␈αthat␈αsocial␈αscience␈α
will␈αtake␈αoff␈αand␈α
make␈αsome␈αdiscoveries␈αthat␈α
will
␈↓ ↓H␈↓permit␈α⊂improved␈α⊂social␈α⊂organization.␈α⊂ Social␈α⊂science␈α⊂is␈α⊂difficult,␈α⊂because␈α⊂social␈α⊂phenomena␈α⊂are
␈↓ ↓H␈↓intrinsically␈α⊂confident,␈α⊂but␈α⊂politics␈α⊃provides␈α⊂additional␈α⊂difficulties.␈α⊂ Namely,␈α⊂when␈α⊃the␈α⊂political
␈↓ ↓H␈↓power␈α
of␈α∞a␈α
group␈α
can␈α∞be␈α
advanced␈α
by␈α∞a␈α
belief␈α
about␈α∞society,␈α
such␈α
a␈α∞belief␈α
gains␈α∞power␈α
beyond
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈α∂supplied␈α∂by␈α∂observation,␈α∂experiment␈α∂and␈α∂logic.␈α∞ In␈α∂my␈α∂opinion,␈α∂the␈α∂level␈α∂of␈α∂objectivity␈α∞of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓American␈αsocial␈αscience␈α
has␈αdeclined␈αin␈αthe␈α
last␈αfifteen␈αyears␈αbecause␈α
of␈αthis.␈α Even␈αthe␈α
objectivity
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈αnatural␈αscience␈αand␈αengineering␈αis␈αbeing␈αsubjected␈αto␈αdistortion␈αfor␈αpolitical␈αends.␈α (There␈αis␈αa
␈↓ ↓H␈↓certain␈α∂similarity␈α∂between␈α∂the␈α∂Sun␈α⊂Day␈α∂movement␈α∂and␈α∂Lysenkoism.␈α∂ Hopefully,␈α⊂the␈α∂differences
␈↓ ↓H␈↓outweigh the similarities).

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Nevertheless,␈α→logic␈α→is␈α→a␈α→powerful␈α_intellectual␈α→force,␈α→and␈α→if␈α→intellectually␈α_convincing
␈↓ ↓H␈↓discoveries␈α∞are␈α
made,␈α∞they␈α
will␈α∞eventually␈α
be␈α∞believed.␈α
 Unfortunately,␈α∞there␈α
is␈α∞no␈α∞evidence␈α
that
␈↓ ↓H␈↓social science is about to make a major advance, but much can happen in fifty years.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_3.␈αIf␈αartificial␈αintelligence␈αresearch␈αresults␈αin␈αa␈αscientific␈αtheory␈αof␈αcommon␈αsense,␈αwe␈αwill␈αbe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓able␈α
to␈α
separate␈α∞sensible␈α
argument␈α
from␈α
nonsense␈α∞in␈α
an␈α
objective␈α
way.␈α∞ This␈α
will␈α
have␈α∞a␈α
major
␈↓ ↓H␈↓effect on public discussion.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_4.␈αA␈αreally␈αgood␈αelectric␈αbattery␈αfor␈αcars␈αwill␈αfree␈αus␈αfrom␈αfossil␈αfuels␈αfor␈αtransportation␈αand
␈↓ ↓H␈↓complete␈αa␈αnuclear␈αand/or␈αsolar␈αsolution␈αof␈αthe␈αenergy␈αproblem.␈α It␈αis␈αhard␈αto␈αsay␈αwhether␈αthis␈αis
␈↓ ↓H␈↓mainly a scientific problem or whether it is just a matter of technology.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_5.␈α
The␈α
biggest␈αproblem␈α
affecting␈α
humanity␈αis␈α
the␈α
shortness␈αof␈α
life.␈α
 We␈αwould␈α
all␈α
like␈αto␈α
live
␈↓ ↓H␈↓much␈α∪longer,␈α∀and␈α∪major␈α∀increases␈α∪in␈α∀life␈α∪span␈α∀are␈α∪not␈α∀possible␈α∪without␈α∀scientific␈α∪advance.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Overcoming the presently identified diseases won't have a major effect.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 91


␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_6.␈α
Anything␈α
that␈α∞will␈α
help␈α
make␈α∞widespread␈α
space␈α
travel␈α
possible␈α∞will␈α
be␈α
of␈α∞great␈α
benefit.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓In␈α⊂the␈α∂first␈α⊂place,␈α∂the␈α⊂dispersion␈α∂of␈α⊂humanity␈α∂in␈α⊂the␈α∂solar␈α⊂system␈α∂and␈α⊂beyond␈α∂will␈α⊂reduce␈α∂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓danger␈α
that␈α
nuclear␈α
war␈α
will␈α
wipe␈α
out␈αhumanity.␈α
 Secondly,␈α
there␈α
is␈α
a␈α
substantial␈α
danger␈αthat␈α
some
␈↓ ↓H␈↓ideology␈α∪-␈α∪for␈α∪example,␈α∩that␈α∪implicit␈α∪in␈α∪SWOPSI␈α∪185,␈α∩will␈α∪gain␈α∪a␈α∪political␈α∪monopoly,␈α∩and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓humanity will stagnate.  Space travel can put off this danger for a few billion years.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_7.␈α∩One␈α∩should␈α∩not␈α∩rule␈α∩out␈α∩the␈α⊃possibility␈α∩of␈α∩modifying␈α∩human␈α∩beings␈α∩to␈α∩make␈α⊃them
␈↓ ↓H␈↓function␈α∩better.␈α∪ Modifications␈α∩to␈α∩babies␈α∪or␈α∩genetic␈α∩modifications␈α∪raise␈α∩ethical␈α∪problems,␈α∩but
␈↓ ↓H␈↓modifications␈α↔that␈α⊗adults␈α↔can␈α↔voluntarily␈α⊗undergo␈α↔are␈α↔somewhat␈α⊗less␈α↔problematical.␈α↔ It␈α⊗is
␈↓ ↓H␈↓unfortunate␈αthat␈αnone␈αof␈αthe␈αdrugs␈αthat␈αbecame␈αpopular␈αin␈αthe␈α1960s␈αturned␈αout␈αto␈αbe␈αany␈αgood.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓More scientific understanding may give us better luck next time.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓αTechnology␈↓

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_1.␈α∂Energy.␈α∂ The␈α⊂transition␈α∂from␈α∂fossil␈α⊂fuel␈α∂to␈α∂nuclear␈α⊂energy␈α∂would␈α∂proceed␈α⊂rapidly␈α∂and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓smoothly␈α∂were␈α⊂it␈α∂not␈α∂for␈α⊂the␈α∂anti-energy␈α⊂movement.␈α∂ Most␈α∂likely,␈α⊂this␈α∂movement␈α⊂will␈α∂dissipate
␈↓ ↓H␈↓before it has caused very great suffering.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_2.␈α∞Home␈α∞computer␈α∞terminals.␈α∞ Cheap␈α∞computers␈α∞have␈α∞given␈α∞rise␈α∞to␈α∞a␈α∞new␈α∞hobby,␈α∞but␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓home␈α∞computer␈α
terminal␈α∞that␈α∞can␈α
access␈α∞all␈α
of␈α∞society's␈α∞information␈α
is␈α∞technologically␈α∞ready␈α
and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓will␈α
be␈α
as␈α
revolutionary␈α∞as␈α
the␈α
telephone.␈α
 I␈α
will␈α∞dwell␈α
on␈α
only␈α
one␈α
aspect␈α∞of␈α
this␈α
-␈α
its␈α∞effect␈α
on
␈↓ ↓H␈↓public controversy.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_At␈αpresent␈αit␈αis␈αdifficult␈αto␈αget␈αone's␈αviews␈αbefore␈αthe␈αpublic.␈α The␈αdifficulty␈αhas␈α
two␈αparts.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓The␈α
first␈αpart␈α
is␈αthat␈α
people␈α
only␈αhave␈α
a␈αcertain␈α
amount␈αof␈α
time␈α
for␈αpublic␈α
affairs␈αand␈α
get␈αread␈α
or
␈↓ ↓H␈↓listen␈α∞to␈α∞everything.␈α
 This␈α∞difficulty␈α∞seem␈α
irremediable␈α∞short␈α∞of␈α
redesigning␈α∞human␈α∞being.␈α
 The
␈↓ ↓H␈↓second␈α∂difficulty␈α∂is␈α∞in␈α∂making␈α∂one's␈α∞views␈α∂available␈α∂to␈α∞the␈α∂public␈α∂and␈α∞has␈α∂three␈α∂components␈α∞-
␈↓ ↓H␈↓expense,␈α∞delay␈α
and␈α∞semi-monopoly.␈α
 Publishing␈α∞a␈α
book␈α∞or␈α
newspaper␈α∞is␈α
expensive,␈α∞and␈α∞there␈α
is
␈↓ ↓H␈↓rooom␈α⊂only␈α⊂for␈α⊂a␈α⊂certain␈α⊂amount␈α⊂of␈α⊂material.␈α⊂ Delay␈α⊂is␈α⊂inevitable,␈α⊂so␈α⊂that␈α⊂a␈α⊂replies␈α⊂are␈α∂often
␈↓ ↓H␈↓ineffective␈α∩even␈α∩when␈α∩cogent.␈α∪ Third,␈α∩a␈α∩periodical␈α∩is␈α∩often␈α∪reluctant␈α∩to␈α∩give␈α∩much␈α∪space␈α∩to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓counterarguments its point of view.  (The ␈↓↓Stanford Daily␈↓ wouldn't print my criticism of Sun Day).

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_Consequently,␈α∪the␈α∪most␈α∪effective␈α∪style␈α∪of␈α∪controversial␈α∪speech␈α∪or␈α∪writing␈α∪often␈α∩ignores
␈↓ ↓H␈↓potential␈αcounter-arguments,␈α
secure␈αin␈α
the␈αbelief␈αthat␈α
only␈αa␈α
small␈αpart␈αof␈α
the␈αaudience␈α
will␈αever
␈↓ ↓H␈↓hear␈α∩any.␈α∩ ␈↓↓New␈α∩York␈α∩Times␈↓␈α∩editorials␈α∩are␈α∩particularly␈α∩inclined␈α∩to␈α∩ignore␈α∩even␈α∪already␈α∩well-
␈↓ ↓H␈↓publicized␈α∃counter-arguments.␈α∀ The␈α∃situation␈α∀seems␈α∃to␈α∀be␈α∃worse␈α∀today␈α∃than␈α∀it␈α∃was␈α∃in␈α∀the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓nineteenth␈α
century,␈α
and␈α
in␈α
this␈α
regard␈α∞it␈α
is␈α
interesting␈α
to␈α
compare␈α
the␈α
Ford-Carter␈α∞debates␈α
with
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α∩Lincoln-Douglas␈α∩debates.␈α∪ One␈α∩might␈α∩suppose␈α∪that␈α∩this␈α∩is␈α∩a␈α∪moral␈α∩problem␈α∩or␈α∪a␈α∩social
␈↓ ↓H␈↓problem, but curiously enough, it is going to be solved by mere technology.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_When␈αall␈αpublished␈αmaterial␈αis␈αin␈αpublically␈αaccessible␈αdisk␈αfiles␈αin␈αwhich␈αanyone␈αcan␈αstore
␈↓ ↓H␈↓material,␈α∂and␈α⊂when␈α∂almost␈α⊂all␈α∂households␈α∂have␈α⊂terminals,␈α∂publication␈α⊂will␈α∂be␈α⊂accomplished␈α∂by
␈↓ ↓H␈↓declaring␈α∂a␈α∂file␈α∞public.␈α∂ Then,␈α∂when␈α∂the␈α∞President␈α∂attacks␈α∂the␈α∂AMA␈α∞or␈α∂the␈α∂oil␈α∂companies,␈α∞the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓reader␈α⊂can␈α⊂ask␈α⊃his␈α⊂terminal,␈α⊂␈↓↓"I␈α⊃wonder␈α⊂what␈α⊂they␈α⊂said␈α⊃in␈α⊂reply␈α⊂to␈α⊃that"␈↓.␈α⊂ The␈α⊂prospect␈α⊃of␈α⊂an
␈↓ ↓H␈↓immediate␈αright␈αof␈αreply␈αwill␈αmake␈αthe␈αPresident's␈αspeech␈αwriters␈αthink␈αharder␈αand␈αproduce␈αmore
␈↓ ↓H␈↓cogent␈α
arguments␈α-␈α
designed␈α
to␈αwithstand␈α
criticism.␈α I␈α
hope␈α
this␈αwill␈α
have␈αa␈α
substantial␈α
effect␈αin
␈↓ ↓H␈↓improving public life.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 92


␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_3.␈α∩Any␈α∩technology␈α⊃such␈α∩as␈α∩building␈α⊃robots␈α∩that␈α∩would␈α⊃substantially␈α∩reduce␈α∩the␈α∩cost␈α⊃of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓construction relative to average income would be very important.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_4.␈αThe␈αmost␈αvaluable␈αresource␈αis␈αhuman␈αlabor,␈αand␈αthis␈αis␈αstill␈αthe␈αmost␈αimportant␈αresource
␈↓ ↓H␈↓to be conserved.  I.e., energy intensive is still better than labor intensive.